Docs / quant-risk / com.nablatensor.risk

final class

VarBacktest

Coverage tests for a one-day VaR forecast against a realised P&L series: the count of exceptions (a loss worse than the forecast), Kupiec's unconditional proportion-of-failures test, and Christoffersen's independence test plus their combined conditional-coverage statistic.

The reference distributions are chi-square with one and two degrees of freedom, whose survival functions are closed forms — 2 (1 - Phi(sqrt s)) for one degree, exp(-s/2) for two — so no incomplete-gamma routine is needed.

Methods

static VarBacktestBuilder of()
int observations()
int exceptions()
double expectedExceptions()
double kupiecStatistic()
double kupiecPValue()
double christoffersenStatistic()
double christoffersenPValue()
double conditionalCoverageStatistic()
double conditionalCoveragePValue()
boolean rejectedAt(double significance)

True if the model is rejected at the given significance (e.g. 0.05) by conditional coverage.